Modeling methane emissions from US natural gas operations: national gathering station emission factor development and facility/regional-scale top-down to bottom-up reconciliations

2017 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.United States natural gas dry production increased by 47% between 2005 and 2015 due to the widespread use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to extract gas from shale and other tight formations. Natural gas production and consumption is projected to continue to increase for the foreseeable future. In 2016, the natural gas supply chain delivered 29% of the energy used in the U.S., and natural gas surpassed coal as the leading electricity generating source for the first time in U.S. history. When combusted, natural gas produces less CO2 per unit energy released compared to coal or petroleum. However, uncombusted methane (the primary component of natural gas) has a global warming potential 30 times higher than CO2 on a 100 year time horizon (including oxidation to CO2, but excluding climate-carbon feedbacks). Therefore, the net greenhouse gas impacts resulting from displacement of coal and petroleum by natural gas depend on the emission rate of uncombusted natural gas. Short term climate benefits resulting from coal substitution, for example, are lost if the net rate of methane (CH4) emission from the natural gas supply chain exceeds 3—4% . Three studies were conducted to quantify CH4 emissions from the natural gas industry. In particular, these studies focused on quantifying emissions from the gathering and processing sector and reconciling emissions estimates developed using top-down (tracer flux and aircraft) vs. bottom-up (on-site component-level) measurement approaches. In the first study, facility-level CH4 emissions measurements were made at 114 natural gas gathering facilities and 16 processing plants in 13 U.S. states during a 20-week field campaign conducted from October 2013 through April 2014. Measurement results were combined with facility counts obtained from state air permit databases and national inventories in a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate CH4 emissions from U.S. natural gas gathering and processing operations. Annual CH4 emissions from normal operations at gathering facilities totaled 1699 Gg (95% CI=1539—1863 Gg), while normal operations at processing plants totaled 505 Gg (95% CI=459—548 Gg). CH4 emissions from abnormal operations at gathering facilities were estimated in a separate Monte Carlo simulation based on field observations and a sub-set of field measurements. These emissions totaled 169 Gg (+426%/-96%). In the second study, coordinated dual-tracer, aircraft-based, and direct component-level measurements were made at midstream natural gas gathering and boosting stations in the Fayetteville shale in Arkansas, USA. On-site component-level measurements were combined with engineering estimates to generate comprehensive facility-level CH4 emission rate estimates ("study on-site estimates (SOE)") comparable to tracer and aircraft measurements. Concurrent measurements at 14 normally-operating facilities showed a strong correlation between tracer and SOE, but indicated that tracer measurements estimated lower emissions (regression of tracer to SOE=0.91 (95% CI=0.83—0.99, R2=0.89). Tracer and SOE 95% confidence intervals overlapped at 11/14 facilities. Contemporaneous measurements at six facilities suggested that aircraft measurements estimated higher emissions than SOE. Aircraft and study on-site estimate 95% confidence intervals overlapped at 3/6 facilities. In the third study, a detailed spatiotemporal inventory model was developed and used to reconcile top down and bottom-up CH4 emission estimates from natural gas infrastructure and other sources in the Fayetteville shale on two consecutive days. On Thursday October 1, 2015 13:00—15:00 CDT top-down aircraft mass balance flights estimated 28.7 (20.1—37.3 Mg/h 95% CI) from the study area, while the bottom-up ground level area estimate predicted 23.9 (20.9—27.3 Mg/h 95% CI). On Friday October 2, 2015 14:30—16:30 CDT top-down estimated 36.7 (21.3—52.1 Mg/h 95% CI), while bottom-up estimated 21.1 (18.4—24.2 Mg/h 95% CI). Production and gathering activities were the largest contributors to modeled CH4 emissions. In contrast to prior studies, comparisons on two consecutive days indicated overlapping confidence intervals between top-down aircraft estimates and bottom-up inventory-driven estimates. Operator participation and extensive activity data proved critical in understanding emissions as observed by aircraft. In particular, the agreement obtained was possible only because bottom-up models included the variability in production maintenance activities, which showed substantially higher emissions during daytime hours when aircraft-based measurements were performed. Results indicated that that poor activity estimates (counts and timing) for large episodic events likely drives divergence in CH4 emission estimates from production basins, and that even more precise activity data would be required to improve agreement between these two approaches

A Decision Tool to Identify Population Management Strategies for Common Ravens and Other Avian Predators

Some avian species have developed the capacity to leverage resource subsidies associated with human manipulated landscapes to increase population densities in habitats with naturally low carrying capacities. Elevated corvid densities and new territory establishment have led to an unsustainable increase in depredation pressure on sympatric native wildlife prey populations as well as in crop damage. Yet, subsidized predator removal programs aimed at reducing densities are likely most effective longer-term when conducted in tandem with subsidy control, habitat management, and robust assessment monitoring programs. We developed decision support software that leverages stage structured Lefkovitch population matrices to compare and identify treatment strategies that reduce subsidized avian predator densities most efficiently, in terms of limiting both cost and take levels. The StallPOPd (Version 4; available at https://doi.org/10.7298/sk2e-0c38.4) software enables managers to enter the area of their management stratum and the demographic properties (vital rates) of target bird population(s) of interest to evaluate strategies to decrease or curtail further population growth. Strategies explicitly include the reduction in fertility (i.e., eggs hatched) and/or the culling of hatchlings, non-breeders and/or breeders, but implicitly comprise reduction in survival or reproduction through subsidy denial. We illustrate the utilities of the software with examples using common ravens (Corvus corax; ravens) in the Mojave Desert of California, USA. Unfortunately, the survival and reproduction effects of each unit of a particular subsidy in that system have remained elusive, though this is the priority of current research. Because the software leverages a life history representation that is known to characterize hundreds of wildlife species in addition to ravens, the work expands the suite of tools available to wildlife managers and agricultural industry specialists to abate bird damage and impacts on sensitive wildlife in habitats with persistent human subsidies

Decoupling of the ϵ\epsilon-scalar mass in softly broken supersymmetry

It has been shown recently that the introduction of an unphysical $\epsilon$-scalar mass $\tilde{m}$ is necessary for the proper renormalization of softly broken supersymmetric theories by dimensional reduction (\drbar). In these theories, both the two-loop $\beta$-functions of the scalar masses and their one-loop finite corrections depend on $\tilde{m}^2$. We find, however, that the dependence on $\tilde{m}^2$ can be completely removed by slightly modifying the \drbar renormalization scheme. We also show that previous \drbar calculations of one-loop corrections in supersymmetry which ignored the $\tilde{m}^2$ contribution correspond to using this modified scheme.Comment: 7 pages, LTH-336, NUB-3094-94TH, KEK-TH-40

Cumulative Burden of Morbidity Among Testicular Cancer Survivors After Standard Cisplatin-Based Chemotherapy: A Multi-Institutional Study

Purpose In this multicenter study, we evaluated the cumulative burden of morbidity (CBM) among > 1,200 testicular cancer survivors and applied factor analysis to determine the co-occurrence of adverse health outcomes (AHOs). Patients and Methods Participants were ≤ 55 years of age at diagnosis, finished first-line chemotherapy ≥ 1 year previously, completed a comprehensive questionnaire, and underwent physical examination. Treatment data were abstracted from medical records. A CBM score encompassed the number and severity of AHOs, with ordinal logistic regression used to assess associations with exposures. Nonlinear factor analysis and the nonparametric dimensionality evaluation to enumerate contributing traits procedure determined which AHOs co-occurred. Results Among 1,214 participants, approximately 20% had a high (15%) or very high/severe (4.1%) CBM score, whereas approximately 80% scored medium (30%) or low/very low (47%). Increased risks of higher scores were associated with four cycles of either ifosfamide, etoposide, and cisplatin (odds ratio [OR], 1.96; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.71) or bleomycin, etoposide, and cisplatin (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.98), older attained age (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.26), current disability leave (OR, 3.53; 95% CI, 1.57 to 7.95), less than a college education (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.87), and current or former smoking (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.63). CBM score did not differ after either chemotherapy regimen ( P = .36). Asian race (OR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.23 to 0.72) and vigorous exercise (OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.89) were protective. Variable clustering analyses identified six significant AHO clusters (χ2 P < .001): hearing loss/damage, tinnitus (OR, 16.3); hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes (OR, 9.8); neuropathy, pain, Raynaud phenomenon (OR, 5.5); cardiovascular and related conditions (OR, 5.0); thyroid disease, erectile dysfunction (OR, 4.2); and depression/anxiety, hypogonadism (OR, 2.8). Conclusion Factors associated with higher CBM may identify testicular cancer survivors in need of closer monitoring. If confirmed, identified AHO clusters could guide the development of survivorship care strategies

Policies and practices of SHEA Research Network hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic

To understand hospital policies and practices as the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated, the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) conducted a survey through the SHEA Research Network (SRN). The survey assessed policies and practices around the optimization of personal protection equipment (PPE), testing, healthcare personnel policies, visitors of COVID-19 patients in relation to procedures, and types of patients. Overall, 69 individual healthcare facilities responded in the United States and internationally, for a 73% response rate

Efficacy of Manipulating Reproduction of Common Ravens to Conserve Sensitive Prey Species: Three Case Studies

Expansion of human enterprise across western North America has resulted in an increase in availability of anthropogenic resource subsidies for generalist species. This has led to increases in generalists’ population numbers across landscapes that were previously less suitable for their current demographic rates. Of particular concern are growing populations of common ravens (Corvus corax; ravens), because predation by ravens is linked to population declines of sensitive species. Ecosystem managers seek management options for mitigating the adverse effects of raven predation where unsustainable predator–prey conflicts exist. We present 3 case studies examining how manipulating reproductive success of ravens influences demographic rates of 2 sensitive prey species. Two case studies examine impacts of removing raven nests or oiling raven eggs on nest survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) within Wyoming and the Great Basin of California and Nevada, USA, respectively. The third case study uses Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii; tortoise) decoys to examine effects of oiling raven eggs on depredation rates of juvenile tortoises in the Mojave Desert in California. Initial trial years from all 3 case studies were consistent in finding improved vital rates associated with the application of strategies for reducing reproductive success of ravens. Specifically, removal of raven nests resulted in increased nest survival of sage-grouse within treatment areas where predation by ravens was the primary cause of nest failure. In addition, nest survival of sage-grouse and survival of juvenile tortoise decoys was higher following a treatment of oiling the eggs of ravens in their nests at 2 sites within the Great Basin and 4 tortoise conservation areas in the Mojave Desert in California. Along with specialized technologies that can make techniques such as egg-oiling more feasible, these findings support these management practices as important tools for managing ravens, especially in areas where breeding ravens have negative impacts on sensitive prey species

A Comparative Study of Leptospirosis and Dengue in Thai Children

Two of the most common causes of acute febrile illnesses among children in the tropics are leptospirosis and dengue. Early in illness, these two conditions are often indistinguishable and rapid laboratory confirmation of the infecting pathogen is generally not available. An enhanced ability to distinguish leptospirosis from dengue in children would guide clinicians and public health personnel in the appropriate use of limited healthcare resources

Genetic association analyses implicate aberrant regulation of innate and adaptive immunity genes in the pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a genetically complex autoimmune disease characterized by loss of immune tolerance to nuclear and cell surface antigens. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) had modest sample sizes, reducing their scope and reliability. Our study comprised 7,219 cases and 15,991 controls of European ancestry, constituting a new GWAS, a meta-analysis with a published GWAS and a replication study. We have mapped 43 susceptibility loci, including ten new associations. Assisted by dense genome coverage, imputation provided evidence for missense variants underpinning associations in eight genes. Other likely causal genes were established by examining associated alleles for cis-acting eQTL effects in a range of ex vivo immune cells. We found an over-representation (n = 16) of transcription factors among SLE susceptibility genes. This finding supports the view that aberrantly regulated gene expression networks in multiple cell types in both the innate and adaptive immune response contribute to the risk of developing SLE

Neonatal Fc Receptor: From Immunity to Therapeutics

The neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn), also known as the Brambell receptor and encoded by Fcgrt, is a MHC class I like molecule that functions to protect IgG and albumin from catabolism, mediates transport of IgG across epithelial cells, and is involved in antigen presentation by professional antigen presenting cells. Its function is evident in early life in the transport of IgG from mother to fetus and neonate for passive immunity and later in the development of adaptive immunity and other functions throughout life. The unique ability of this receptor to prolong the half-life of IgG and albumin has guided engineering of novel therapeutics. Here, we aim to summarize the basic understanding of FcRn biology, its functions in various organs, and the therapeutic design of antibody- and albumin-based therapeutics in light of their interactions with FcRn

Many Labs 5:Testing pre-data collection peer review as an intervention to increase replicability

Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3?9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276?3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (?r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00?.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19?.50)